Zoomlion (000157): 2019 first quarter report predicts that excess profits are expected to be released and the verification continues

Zoomlion (000157): 2019 first quarter report predicts that excess profits are expected to be released and the verification continues

Zoomlion (000157): 2019 first quarter report predicts that excess profits are expected to be released and the verification continues

Event: Zoomlion announced its performance forecast on April 8. It is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will be about 8 in the first quarter of 2019.

5-10.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 125 in ten years.

61% -178.

69%; basic profit income is about 0.

11 yuan-0.

13 yuan.

Comments: The forecast of the first quarter of 2019 results exceeded expectations, and the excessive release of profits continued to be verified.

Construction machinery industry 成都桑拿网 continues to pick up: 2019M1-2, of which car cranes, truck cranes, and crawler crane sales were 5784/2430/278 units, + 58% / 14% / 32% each time; 2019M3, Pangyuan leased tons of metersThe rate reached 71.

4%, +2 from the same period last year.

8pct; mobile cranes and concrete machinery are at the peak of demand, which is in line with our prediction of prosperity.

Increase in core product market share: 2019M1-2, Zoomlion Heavy Duty car crane sales of 1,496 units (+ 111%), market share reached 25.

86% (+ 6.

45pct).

Excessive release of profits continues to be verified: In the first quarter of 2019, the company announced that the growth rate of purity profit of mothers and mothers reached 126-179%. Based on the basic clearance of mobile phones and legal aircraft in 2018, the profit elasticity further appeared and the company’s profitAbility to step up again.

The “Zhonglian Smart Industry City Project Framework Cooperation Agreement” signed with the Changsha Municipal Government accelerates the intelligent transformation.

The company’s next-generation products revolve around the “Internet + Intelligent Manufacturing” strategy to achieve simultaneous improvement of R & D and manufacturing, production management and marketing services. The company is in research / offline in 20184.

0 products have reached 29/14 models, with a number of technical levels leading the world.

On April 1, 2019, the company announced that it would cooperate with the senior government of Changsha City on the “Zhonglian Smart Industry City Project Framework Cooperation Agreement”, aiming to build a “Zhonglian” integrating high-end equipment intelligent manufacturing bases and artificial intelligence research and application bases by 2022.”Smart Industrial City”, we believe that the construction of the Industrial City is expected to enhance the company’s product technological strength and manufacturing capabilities, and provide alternative assistance for domestic market competition and overseas market expansion.

The core main business will still have demand elasticity in 2019, and its incremental business strategy is clear.

Core business: The three factors of infrastructure stimulus + environmental protection drive + life update are co-driven. We believe that the company’s mobile crane and concrete equipment revenue in 2019 will still account for about 15% of its elasticity. In 2018, the historical burden of mobile phones and legal aircraft was fully cleared.On the basis of this, profits are expected to be released in excess.

Incremental business: The policy boosts the proportion of prefabricated buildings and boosts the demand for large-scale PC towers. Zhonglian is an industry leader with pricing power. We believe that tower crane revenue contribution in 2019 is expected to exceed 2 billion.

The company restarted the excavator business and is expected to form a production capacity of 5,000 units in 2019. Considering the excavator market competition and the company’s sales channel restrictions, we think the excavator’s 2019 performance contribution is expected to be around 12 trillion.

The domestic AWP is still in the industry introduction period. The company is actively deploying the AWP market, and future growth is expected.

Cutting-edge sector: The company has further streamlined its product line, adjusted its product structure, accelerated its intelligent layout, and implemented strict cost management. The agricultural machinery segment is expected to continue to narrow, and the turning point for agricultural machinery performance is expected.

Estimates and grades: Maintain profit forecast and maintain “overweight” grade.

The company’s historical baggage has continued to improve and risks have been effectively cleared. Strategic return to the main business of construction machinery, construction cranes, and concrete equipment will still reduce revenue and profit elasticity in 2019. Tower cranes, excavators and AWP are committed to providing continuous growth momentum, and the agricultural machinery business is expected toContinue to reduce losses.
Maintaining profit forecast, the company is expected to realize net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/2020/202126.

40/30.

07/28.

360,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS0.

34/0.

39/0.

36 yuan, corresponding 淡水桑拿网 to PE15 / 13 / 14X, considering that the company’s cash flow continues to improve, profits can still be flexible, giving 17 times PE in 2019 with a target price of 5.

78 yuan, corresponding to about 14% growth space.